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Cementir Holding

CR
Bloomberg   CEM IM
Cement & Aggregates  /  Italy  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Also operates in : Holding Companies
Positioned in a niche market
Target
Upside 31.6%
Price (€) 9.89
Market Cap (€M) 1,574
Perf. 1W: -2.66%
Perf. 1M: 5.66%
Perf. 3M: 3.89%
Perf Ytd: 3.67%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -1.16%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 6.74%
Earnings/sales releases10/05/2023

Q1 23: Pricing boosts profitability

Cementir Holding announced a good set of results, in line with our expectations. Despite a decline in volume, the company managed to increase revenue in most segments due to higher average selling prices, while maintaining its margins thanks to its hedging policy and a presence in niche markets. EBITDA increased by 41% and the margin increased by 290bps.

The results and guidance for FY23 are in line with our expectations so we won’t be making significant changes to our model.


Fact

*Revenue: €414.8m (vs €362.3m in Q1 22)
*EBITDA: €81.2m (vs €60.7m in Q1 22)
*PBT: €63.9m (vs €42.4m in Q1 22)
*Outlook for the full year re-iterated


Analysis

Cementir Holding has reported a good set of Q1 results, with a significant increase in revenue and EBITDA. Despite a decrease in volumes of cement, RMC and aggregates, the company managed to achieve a 14.5% increase in revenue and a 33.8% increase in EBITDA due to its successful implementation of price increases.

The higher EBITDA was primarily seen in key markets such as the Nordics and Baltics, as well as Belgium, which together accounted for 73% of the group’s EBITDA. This was due to the company’s careful management of energy costs, supported by a strong hedging policy. As a result, Cementir Holding reported an increase of 290 bps.

While energy costs have reached their peak in the last year, they have now stabilized at a level that is still higher than the average for the previous years. Consequently, we anticipate that prices will drop following the decline in energy costs. However, it is important to note that inflation might cause labor and financial costs to continue to rise this year.

Performance by division

The Nordic and Baltic region, which accounted for 40% of the total revenue, saw flat growth of 1.3% as a slight fall in volume was offset by price increases. Denmark experienced a mid-single digit drop in volumes, while Norway and Sweden both saw double-digit decreases in volume, driven by high inflation and increased interest rates affecting the residential sector and investments in public works. Despite these challenges, revenue in Denmark increased by 13.2% and EBITDA by 62%, while Norway and Sweden were more affected, with revenue decreasing by 20% and EBITDA by 84% YoY. Nevertheless, the margin still increased by 74 bps.

The Belgium and France segment posted a robust performance, with a 19% increase in revenue and a 33% increase in EBITDA, despite a decline in volume. This was mainly due to successful price increases that offset the volume decline. The EBITDA margin also saw a significant increase of 240 bps, thanks to the company’s efficient management of energy costs.

In North America, the US market experienced lower demand for volume in Texas and California due to competitive pressure from imports. Despite this, revenue increased by 2.7% thanks to price increases and a positive FX impact of 4.4%. However, EBITDA decreased by 18% due to higher operating costs, resulting in a decrease of 320 bps in the EBITDA margin.

In the Asia Pacific region, Cementir Holding experienced mixed results. In China, there was a 6% decline in revenue due to lower prices, despite a 3% increase in volumes, resulting in a 31% drop in EBITDA due to increased production costs. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, revenue decreased by 3.4% due to a significant decrease in exports, which was offset by positive demand in the local market. EBITDA increased by 19.5% due to higher selling prices and lower freight costs, which compensated for lower volumes and increased production costs.

Despite a decrease in export volume from Turkey, the company managed to achieve an impressive 82% increase in sales. This growth was driven by successful price increases and an increase in demand in the domestic market. EBITDA also saw a significant improvement, standing at €7.8m compared to €1.6m previously, resulting in a 640bp increase in the EBITDA margin.

In Egypt, revenue decreased by 12.8% primarily due to the negative impact of FX (79%). However, EBITDA increased by 34% due to the efficient management of production costs and an increase in selling prices, resulting in a 940bp increase in the margin.


Impact

Despite a very strong quarter, the management has taken a conservative stance due to uncertainty around the potential risks associated with upcoming elections in Turkey and a slowdown in demand in the Nordics. Nonetheless, it has confirmed its full-year revenue guidance of over €1.8bn, EBITDA in the range of €335-345m and a net cash position of ~€200m. We too have a similar view and, hence, we will stick to our current estimates with no upward revisions to our numbers.


Updates

13 Feb 24 Earnings/sales releases
FY 23: A conservative look to the future

08 Nov 23 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 23: Conservative guidance

31 Jul 23 Earnings/sales releases
H1 23: positive price-cost spread

10 May 23 Earnings/sales releases
Q1 23: Pricing boosts profitability

18 Apr 23 EPS change
Price hikes boost the EPS

13 Feb 23 Earnings/sales releases
FY 22: Price hikes to manage inflation.

04 Nov 22 Earnings/sales releases
9M 22: competitive pricing but lower cost suppo...

28 Jul 22 Earnings/sales releases
H1 22: IAS 29 lowers profitability

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