AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Cementir Holding

CR
Bloomberg   CEM IM
Cement & Aggregates  /  Italy  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Also operates in : Holding Companies
Competitive pricing but lower cost supports profitability
Target
Upside 45.3%
Price (€) 7.91
Market Cap (€M) 1,259
Perf. 1W: -1.25%
Perf. 1M: -2.83%
Perf. 3M: 27.8%
Perf Ytd: 28.8%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 1.14%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 1.27%
EPS change24/03/2020

Change in EPS2020 : € 0.56 vs 0.65-14.3%
2021 : € 0.61 vs 0.77-20.1%

We have updated our model with the FY19 results. The company performed better than we had anticipated, especially in Turkey, where we priced in the impact of the country's economic strains and devaluation of lira too conservatively. Despite the company's great performance in 2019, we have narrowed our estimates for 2020 and 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We have only marginally reduced the EPS for 2020 and 2021 because they were already low as compared to the updated 2019 level. However, the company has not communicated anything about the impact of COVID-19, except for the fact that the operations in China are already regaining momentum. Thus, for the moment, our current assumptions are based on a wet finger approach and we will make further changes once the company communicates on the impact and possibly a fresh set of targets during Q1 20 results.



Change in DCF€ 10.2 vs 12.0-14.9%

Along with the change in earnings, we have increased the debt spread to 300bp. We have also changed the EBITDA growth to 1.5% from 2% in the out years because COVID-19 has added an extra layer of uncertainity to the earnings growth, on the already existent ETS Phase IV (Emission Trading Scheme) apprehension.



Updates

06 Mar 20 Earnings/sales releases
FY19: profits higher than our conservative proje...

18 Feb 20 Earnings/sales releases
FY19: stability despite the Turkish burden

20 Dec 19 ESG related
When cement goes green too

15 Nov 19 Earnings/sales releases
Priority to organic growth

02 Aug 19 Initiation cov.
Value in white

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