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Cementir Holding

CR
Bloomberg   CEM IM
Cement & Aggregates  /  Italy  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Also operates in : Holding Companies
Positioned in a niche market
Target
Upside 28.7%
Price (€) 10.18
Market Cap (€M) 1,620
Perf. 1W: -0.97%
Perf. 1M: 9.58%
Perf. 3M: 5.93%
Perf Ytd: 6.71%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -1.55%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 8.85%
Earnings/sales releases28/07/2022

H1 22: IAS 29 lowers profitability

Cementir Holding announced good H1 22 results, with revenue at €811m (+22% yoy), EBITDA at €143.8m (+7.7% yoy) and NI at €66.6m (+39.1% yoy). All the regions posted sharp increases in revenues which helped to partially offset input cost inflation. However, Belgium and Turkey were the key growth drivers with sharp increase in volumes as well (export volume for the latter). Net financial income and equity-accounted income of €17.7m further helped to support profits. FY22 guidance re-iterated.


Fact

  • Revenue: €811m, up 22%.
  • EBITDA: €144m, up 7.7%.
  • EBIT: €82m, up by 4.1%.
  • Net financial debt at €79.5m (including €6.3m of share buy-backs).
  • FY22 guidance re-iterated with revenues and EBITDA expected at >€1.5bn and €305-315m respectively.

Analysis

Application of IAS 29 in Turkey

As of June 2022, the Turkish economy is considered hyperinflationary according to the criteria set out in “IAS 29 – Financial Reporting in Hyperinflationary Economies”. This led to the revaluation of all the balance sheet and P&L items and application of final FX rate (i.e. as on 30th June 2022) instead of the average exchange rate for the entire period. As a result, the EBITDA margin dropped by a further 150bps, EBIT by €15.7m and net profit by €4.4m.

Performance by segment
  • The Nordics and Baltics (revenue: €345.7m, up by 13.1%): Denmark saw a sharp increase in cement demand (+14%) due to increased market activities but the other products and regions registered a decline in demand. It is worth noting that white cement exports were down by 26% mainly due to the redistribution of sales in the US to other group companies (to better manage CO2 costs). EBITDA was down by 8% to €63.7m due to negative price over cost effect.
  • Belgium and France (revenue: €162.5m, up by 16.2%): This region delivered the strongest performance. EBITDA increased by 26.7% and EBITDA margin by 190bp to 22.7%, benefiting from higher volumes as well as prices.
  • North America (revenue: €96.7m, up by 26.9%): Like Belgium, North America too benefitted from increased volume and prices but, in addition, a 10% USD revaluation vs EUR helped bolster the growth. We continue to have a positive outlook for the US, especially in the residential and bagged cement sectors.
  • Turkey (revenue: €115.4m, up by 39.8%): There was an overall drop in domestic cement due to weak economic conditions, the end of infrastructure projects related to the January 2020 earthquake and unfavourable weather conditions in the Kars area. However, aggregate volumes increased by 155% yoy due to a perimeter change as the quarry acquired in H2 2021 ramped up its operations. EBITDA increased by 65.5% (excluding the one-off of a €11.1m non-industrial properties revaluation. Note that we have a conservative outlook for this region because the worsening economic situation may lead to the cancellation of new projects and delays to existing ones.
  • Egypt (revenue: €27.6m, up by 17.1%): Egypt suffered from weak domestic demand but white cement export volumes continued to increase (+2% yoy), limiting the overall volume decline to 2%. EBITDA was slightly down by 1.2%, with higher sales prices offsetting higher fuel procurement costs.
  • Asia Pacific (revenue: €58.0m, up by 19.4%): In China volumes were down by 10.5% but revenue was up by 11%, driven by higher cement prices. However, price over cost was still negative and hence EBITDA declined by 4%. China too suffered from a negative price over cost and hence saw a 6% decline in EBITDA.
Guidance for 2022 maintained

The group maintained its FY22 guidance of revenue >€1.5bn, EBITDA of €305-315m, net cash position of €60m and capex of €95m despite the strong H1 result. This is largely owing to volatile input costs as well as the added uncertainties from the implication of IAS 29 (since the final FX rate is used instead of average rate).


Impact

Following this release we have made some tweaks to our model with no significant impact on our target price.


Updates

13 Feb 24 Earnings/sales releases
FY 23: A conservative look to the future

08 Nov 23 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 23: Conservative guidance

31 Jul 23 Earnings/sales releases
H1 23: positive price-cost spread

10 May 23 Earnings/sales releases
Q1 23: Pricing boosts profitability

18 Apr 23 EPS change
Price hikes boost the EPS

13 Feb 23 Earnings/sales releases
FY 22: Price hikes to manage inflation.

04 Nov 22 Earnings/sales releases
9M 22: competitive pricing but lower cost suppo...

28 Jul 22 Earnings/sales releases
H1 22: IAS 29 lowers profitability

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