Cementir’s Q2 reversed much of the concern created by the weak start to the year. At a constant perimeter, cement volumes rose by 3.4%, revenue increased by 5.3%, and non-GAAP EBITDA grew by 12.9%, with the margin improving to 24.9% from 23.3%. The first half still looks weak because Q1 was hit by severe winter weather in the Nordic & Baltic regions and Turkey, plus FX pressure. The important point is that Q2 put the group back on the guidance path. Management confirmed FY26 guidance, and Nymølle, consolidated from 1 July, is not included in that range.
The main Q1 concern was cost inflation. Management had warned in May that energy and logistics could add around €38m to the annual cost base if end-March conditions persisted. However, this seems not to be the case. Oil fell from around $120 to roughly $70 before rising again in recent days. In Q2, electricity and fuel costs were about €8m higher than last year, but the gap did not worsen from Q1. The cost drag therefore stopped increasing, while pricing recovered around half of the EBITDA shortfall carried out of Q1.
Petcoke remains the main fuel risk because supply is concentrated in the US Gulf and the market is too shallow to hedge properly. Cementir manages this through forward purchases and a wider supplier base, but the exposure is smaller than it first appears. Egypt, China and Malaysia are the only markets fully dependent on petcoke, and together they account for less than 15% of group volumes. Europe has already moved further away from it, with alternative fuels at around 75% of the grey-cement fuel mix in Denmark and Belgium. Denmark is also converting to natural gas, with Belgium set to follow next year. The US plants already run on gas, while Turkey can switch to lignite when prices justify it.
The regional mix also improved. Belgium and France lifted EBITDA by 6.8%, with a 28.3% margin, supported by 5% domestic cement volume growth and 17% export growth. Egypt grew EBITDA by 43%, helped by 31% domestic volume growth and 78% export growth after the second production line moved past earlier technical issues. Norway and Sweden grew EBITDA by 56%, with Sweden up 10% in ready-mix and 24% in aggregates. Nordic & Baltic, which represents 45% of group EBITDA, did not fully recover because Denmark still carried higher CO2 taxes and Fehmarn delays, but deliveries normalised through the quarter. Holding & Services also swung €5.5m positive thanks to Spartan Hive intermediation margins.
Financial health
Net cash of €276.8m is €132.8m higher than last year. The improvement was helped by €51m of proceeds from Kars, €19.7m of insurance proceeds and €18.6m from the Just Transition Fund, partly offset by €54.9m of dividends. The €188.3m decline versus December reflects normal first-half working-capital seasonality. H1 capex was €92.3m, ahead of the usual phasing because management pulled spending forward while weather limited sales. Full-year capex is now expected slightly below the €128m guidance. Equity stood at €2,048.7m.
Outlook
The second half needs around €246m to €266m of non-GAAP EBITDA to reach guidance, against an implied like-for-like H2 2025 base of about €232m. That requires growth of around 6% at the bottom of the range and 15% at the top. Q2 delivered 12.9% growth at constant perimeter, so the lower half of guidance looks achievable if volumes continue to normalise and costs do not rise again.
Nymølle adds to reported earnings from July but is outside the guidance range. The business brings around €30m of pro-forma revenue and €12.5m of pro-forma EBITDA, with about €4m of synergies targeted within 24 months. ACCSION is a longer-term upside item, not a 2026 earnings driver. The June contract pays around €117 per tonne of CO2 on up to 1.25Mt annually from 2030, worth up to about €146m per year for 15 years, or roughly €2.2bn in total, indexed to inflation. Third-party storage certification is due in early 2027, with no red flags reported so far. In Brazil, management confirmed a non-binding look at CSN, but said the perimeter was too large to buy whole and that press-reported multiples would not meet its price discipline.
Q2 supports the view that the weak Q1 was mainly seasonal. We maintain our estimates and positive stance. The view depends on continued volume normalisation in H2, especially in Denmark.
