AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Cementir Holding

CR
Bloomberg   CEM IM
Cement & Aggregates  /  Italy  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Also operates in : Holding Companies
Competitive pricing but lower cost supports profitability
Target
Upside 67.1%
Price (€) 6.08
Market Cap (€M) 967
Perf. 1W: -3.18%
Perf. 1M: 1.16%
Perf. 3M: 9.16%
Perf Ytd: -25.4%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -3.80%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -2.77%
EPS change11/12/2019

Change in EPS2019 : € 0.50 vs 0.48+4.11%
2020 : € 0.63 vs 0.57+9.36%

In our opinion, the 300bp EBITDA margin improvement by 2022 as well as the back-ended green capex should drive EPS higher as soon as 2020, compared to our previous assumptions. Cementir remains a strong buy in the capital-intensive cement industry thanks to its clever capital allocation: it now favours internal investment rather than acquisitions, due to the fact that the payback period is about half that of an acquisition. Bottom line, Cementir is truly the king of capital allocation in the cement sector.



Change in Target Price€ 9.49 vs 9.11+4.24%

We have reviewed our long-term assumptions: we believe that the industrial plan offers some upside to our valuation. Nonetheless, we remain especially cautious in our long-term assumptions especially on the cash generation side of our DCF, meaning that there is more chance of a revision upwards than of a revision downwards.



Updates

18 Feb 20 Earnings/sales releases
FY19: stability despite the Turkish burden

20 Dec 19 ESG related
When cement goes green too

15 Nov 19 Earnings/sales releases
Priority to organic growth

02 Aug 19 Initiation cov.
Value in white

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