AlphaValue Corporate Services
COVERAGE ABOUT US CONTACT FR
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

Swissquote Group Holding

CR 		Bloomberg   SQN SW
Internet banking/Fintech  /  Switzerland  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
A must have, now licensed to conquer Europe
Target
Upside 19.7%
Price (CHF) 179.1
Target Price (CHF) 214
Market Cap (CHFM) 2,746
Benchmarks Current multiplesWeightValues (CHF)Upside 
DCF (Edit and simulate)  35%20414%
NAV/SOTP per share   20%23028%
EV/Ebitda Peers 7.3 x 20%28157%
P/E Peers 12.2 x 10%20313%
Dividend Yield Peers 1.6% 10%85.0-53%
P/Book Peers 2.8 x 5%24537%
Target Price  100%21420% 
Valuation matters

Peers

Concerning its peers, we consider Viel & CIE (Tradition’s main shareholder) as Swissquote’s closest peer (in our coverage). Euronext, Deutsche Boerse and the LSEG are also reasonable proxies of the Swiss Fintech as they are more and more tech-focused and remain dependent on trading volumes. Asset managers Amundi and DWS are dependent as well on the financial markets. As Swissquote is in theory a bank, we find it right to compare it to Swiss banks UBS and Julius Baer which are also mainly dependent on fees (wealth management).

We apply a 50% discount on the yield-based valuation as, contrary to all its peers apart from the market venues, Swissquote prefers investing rather than paying out dividends (in line with its DNA as a fintech company).

DCF

The DCF is based on a computed 10-year revenue and EBITDA growth of 3% to factor in the higher growth of fintech banks compared to traditional ones.
Comparison Based Valuation
Help
Computed on 18 month forecastsMcap (€M]P/E (x)Ev/Ebitda (x)P/Book (x)Yield(%)
Peers ratios 15.3 20.6 4.55 3.36
Swissquote Group Holding's ratios 12.2 7.29 2.83 1.59
Premium -10.0% -40.0% -15.0% 0.00%
Default comparison based valuation (CHF) 203 281 245 85.0
SwedenNordnet(Consensus) 3,401 15.110.45.254.80
SwedenAvanza(Consensus) 3,114 18.237.56.084.01
GermanyflatexDEGIRO AG(Consensus) 948 11.86.342.79n/a
GermanySmartbroker Holding AG(Consensus) 144 19.813.92.580.00
sino AG 66.2 nsns7.140.82
Fine tune DCFs
with your own assumptions DOWNLOAD
SPREADSHEET
DCF Valuation Per Share Help View DCF history
WACC % 8.98
PV of cashflow FY1-FY11 CHFM 1,228
FY11CF CHFM 231
Normalised long-term growth"g" % 2.00
Sustainability "g" % 2.15
Terminal value CHFM 3,387
PV terminal value CHFM 1,433
PV terminal value in % of total... % 53.9
Total PV CHFM 2,661
Avg net debt (cash) at book v... CHFM -409
Provisions CHFM 48.7
Unrecognised actuarial losses... CHFM 0.00
Financial assets at market price CHFM 8.34
Minorities interests (fair value) CHFM 0.00
Equity value CHFM 3,030
Number of shares Mio 14.9
Implied equity value per share CHF 204
Sustainability impact on DCF % 1.03
Assessing The Cost Of Capital Help
Synthetic default risk free rate % 3.50
Target equity risk premium % 5.00
Tax advantage of debt financ... % 25.0
Average debt maturity Year 5
Sector asset beta x 1.10
Debt beta x 0.02
Market capitalisation CHFM 2,665
Net debt (cash) at book value CHFM -354
Net debt (cash) at market value CHFM -354
Company debt spread bp 10.0
Marginal Company cost of debt % 3.60
Company beta (leveraged) x 0.99
Company gearing at market v... % -13.3
Company market gearing % -15.3
Required return on geared eq... % 8.43
Cost of debt % 2.70
Cost of ungeared equity % 8.98
WACC % 8.98
DCF Calculation Help
  12/21A 12/22E 12/23E 12/24E Growth 12/25E
Sales CHFM   472 400 486 557 3.00% 573   
EBITDA CHFM   255 219 274 321 3.00% 330   
EBITDA Margin %   53.9 54.6 56.4 57.6 57.6   
Change in WCR CHFM   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00% 0.00   
Total operating cash flows (pre tax) CHFM   313 242 227 278 330   
Corporate tax CHFM   -30.2 -27.7 -35.0 -41.0 3.00% -42.2   
Net tax shield CHFM   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00% 0.00   
Capital expenditure CHFM   -28.0 -40.0 -48.6 -55.7 3.00% -57.3   
Capex/Sales %   -5.93 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0   
Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes) CHFM   254 175 144 181 231   
Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF... CHFM   -46.2   
Free cash flow adjusted CHFM   254 175 144 181 184   
Discounted free cash flows CHFM   254 175 132 152 142   
Invested capital CHF   282 344 366 392 358   
NAV/SOTP fine tuning DOWNLOAD
SPREADSHEET
NAV/SOTP Calculation
View discount to NAV/SOTP history
 % ownedValuation technique Multiple used Valuation at 100%
(CHFM) 		Stake
valuation
(CHFM) 		In currency per share
(CHF) 		% of gross assets
Swissquote excl. crypto 100% EV/EBITDA 11 3,055 3,055 205 99.7%
Swissquote Crypto 100% EV/EBITDA 3 9.00 9.00 0.60 0.29%
Other
Total gross assets 3,064 206 100%
Net cash/(debt) by year end 354 23.8 11.5%
Commitments to pay
Commitments received
NAV/SOTP 3,417 230 112%
Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Mio) 14.9
NAV/SOTP per share (CHF) 230
Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%) 22.0 View history

Changes to Story : 07/03/2023, Changes to Forecasts : 07/03/2023.