AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and does therefore not constitute an inducement caught by the prohibition under MiFID II

Swissquote Group Holding

CR
Bloomberg   SQN SW
Internet banking/Fintech  /  Switzerland  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Suited for all market seasons
Target
Upside 3.66%
Price (CHF) 287.6
Market Cap (CHFM) 4,409
Benchmarks Current multiplesWeightValues (CHF)Upside 
DCF (Edit and simulate)  35%257-11%
NAV/SOTP per share   20%3087%
EV/Ebitda Peers 9.7 x 20%37731%
P/E Peers 14.7 x 10%31811%
Dividend Yield Peers 2.0% 10%197-32%
P/Book Peers 3.3 x 5%39136%
Target Price  100%2984% 
Valuation matters

Peers

Concerning its peers, we consider Viel & CIE (Tradition’s main shareholder) as Swissquote’s closest peer (in our coverage). Euronext, Deutsche Boerse and the LSEG are also reasonable proxies of the Swiss Fintech as they are more and more tech-focused and remain dependent on trading volumes. Asset managers Amundi and DWS are dependent as well on the financial markets. As Swissquote is in theory a bank, we find it right to compare it to Swiss banks UBS and Julius Baer which are also mainly dependent on fees (wealth management).

We apply a 50% discount on the yield-based valuation as, contrary to all its peers apart from the market venues, Swissquote prefers investing rather than paying out dividends (in line with its DNA as a fintech company).

DCF

The DCF is based on a computed 10-year revenue and EBITDA growth of 3% to factor in the higher growth of fintech banks compared to traditional ones.

Comparison Based Valuation
Computed on 18 month forecastsMcap (€M]P/E (x)Ev/Ebitda (x)P/Book (x)Yield(%)
Peers ratios 18.0 23.8 5.34 2.90
Swissquote Group Holding's ratios 14.7 9.74 3.33 1.98
Premium -10.0% -45.0% -15.0% 0.00%
Default comparison based valuation (CHF) 318 377 391 197
SwedenNordnet(Consensus) 4,957 20.213.76.963.52
SwedenAvanza(Consensus) 3,668 20.739.46.613.72
GermanyflatexDEGIRO AG(Consensus) 1,473 11.86.342.79n/a
sino AG 116 8.45-2.105.310.20
GermanySmartbroker Holding AG(Consensus) 107 ns23.42.48n/a
DCF Valuation Per Share Help View DCF history
WACC % 8.84
PV of cashflow FY1-FY11 CHFM 1,560
FY11CF CHFM 280
Normalised long-term growth"g" % 2.00
Sustainability "g" % 2.25
Terminal value CHFM 4,246
PV terminal value CHFM 1,821
PV terminal value in % of total... % 53.9
Total PV CHFM 3,380
Avg net debt (cash) at book v... CHFM -458
Provisions CHFM 27.7
Unrecognised actuarial losses... CHFM 0.00
Financial assets at market price CHFM 8.98
Minorities interests (fair value) CHFM 0.00
Equity value CHFM 3,820
Number of shares Mio 14.9
Implied equity value per share CHF 257
Sustainability impact on DCF % 1.77
Assessing The Cost Of Capital Help
Synthetic default risk free rate % 3.50
Target equity risk premium % 5.00
Tax advantage of debt financ... % 25.0
Average debt maturity Year 5
Sector asset beta x 1.07
Debt beta x 0.05
Market capitalisation CHFM 4,273
Net debt (cash) at book value CHFM -392
Net debt (cash) at market value CHFM -392
Company debt spread bp 25.0
Marginal Company cost of debt % 3.75
Company beta (leveraged) x 0.99
Company gearing at market v... % -9.17
Company market gearing % -10.1
Required return on geared eq... % 8.47
Cost of debt % 2.81
Cost of ungeared equity % 8.84
WACC % 8.84
DCF Calculation Help
  12/23A 12/24E 12/25E 12/26E Growth 12/27E
Sales CHFM   531 680 652 685 3.00% 706   
EBITDA CHFM   298 405 383 394 3.00% 406   
EBITDA Margin %   56.2 59.5 58.7 57.6 57.6   
Change in WCR CHFM   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00% 0.00   
Total operating cash flows (pre tax) CHFM   298 308 363 337 406   
Corporate tax CHFM   -37.8 -53.0 -50.6 -52.3 3.00% -53.9   
Net tax shield CHFM   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00   
Capital expenditure CHFM   -53.1 -68.0 -65.2 -68.5 3.00% -70.6   
Capex/Sales %   -9.99 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0   
Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes) CHFM   208 187 247 217 282   
Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF... CHFM   -58.7   
Free cash flow adjusted CHFM   208 187 247 217 223   
Discounted free cash flows CHFM   208 187 227 183 173   
Invested capital CHF   385 415 450 488 444   
NAV/SOTP Calculation
 % ownedValuation technique Multiple used Valuation at 100%
(CHFM)
Stake
valuation
(CHFM)
In currency per share
(CHF)
% of gross assets
Swissquote 100% EV/EBITDA 10 3,950 3,950 266 100%
Other
Total gross assets 3,950 266 100%
Net cash/(debt) by year end 630 42.4 15.9%
Commitments to pay
Commitments received
NAV/SOTP 4,580 308 116%
Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Mio) 14.9
NAV/SOTP per share (CHF) 308
Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%) 6.69 View history

Changes to Story : 02/04/2024, Changes to Forecasts : 02/04/2024.