AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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Drone Volt

CR
Bloomberg   ALDRV FP
Aerosp. & Defence Equipt.  /  France  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Contract execution for a potentially record year
Earnings/sales releases15/10/2020

Q3 20: strong rebound in Q3, further improvement expected in Q4

Drone Volt has released its Q3 20 figures which showed a strong rebound in activity during this quarter, fuelled by drone deliveries. The third quarter was rich in terms of commercial announcements, with a strategic partnership tied with the US company Aquiline Drones. We anticipate this good momentum to continue in Q4.


Fact

  • Q3 20 deliveries reached 27 units, down 10% yoy and a sharp rebound from Q2 20
  • Q3 20 revenue was €1,327k, down 26% yoy
  • Q3 20 gross profit was €357k, against €630k last year
  • Backlog still at €15m, no cancellations ytd related to the pandemic
  • Concretisation of the contract with Aquiline Drones

Analysis

Sharp sequential rebound in Q3
During the quarter, Drone Volt delivered a total of 27 drones and cameras, a sharp improvement over the 13 deliveries of Q1 20 and just one delivery during the second quarter. This included 22 drones (same level compared to Q3 19) and five Pensar cameras (vs eight last year).
The activity rebounded strongly in both segments to €1.3m, up 79% qoq (down 26% yoy). This was mainly been driven by a steep improvement at Drone Volt Factory where sales grew to €579k (down 17% yoy but revenue multiplied by more than 4x on a sequential basis). The third-party’s distribution also rebounded to €749k, up 30% qoq (and down 25 yoy). In terms of profitability, the gross margin reached €358k, against €630k in Q3 19 and up from €202k in Q2 20. Margins have sustained with the regain in activity despite lower training business. Drone Volt Factory’s gross profit was €212k and third-party distribution was €146k (19% gross margin).

Still healthy backlog and a good commercial momentum
Commercially, the order backlog remained strong at €15m, with no cancellations related to the pandemic since the beginning of the year. In addition, Drone Volt signed the contract with Aquline Drones for the sale under licence of its dronex in this US. We see this as very positive for Drone Volt as it should bring in at least $300k of cash inflow for Q4, topped by a down-payment of $450k to compensate for the transfer of know-how, which is favourable for FCF generation. We also estimate that revenue directly linked to this activity could reach €2m by 2021 and €3.5m by 2022.

Further improvements expected in Q4
All in all, the rebound is well engaged, and we expect this trend to continue in Q4, still supported by the above-mentioned backlog. We also anticipate a rebound in training activity in Q4 (which lagged somewhat in Q3) to support further the gross margin of the company. All in all, Q4 could reach €4.8m in revenue, implying FY20 revenue at €6.7m along with a €1.7m gross profit (€2.6m on a full-year basis).


Impact

We maintain our current estimates for the remainder of the year and we keep our Add rating on the stock.


Target
Upside 107%
Price (€) 0.09
Market Cap (€M) 23.6
Perf. 1W: -9.36%
Perf. 1M: -28.5%
Perf. 3M: -44.0%
Perf Ytd: -68.2%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -13.7%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -27.3%
Updates

22 Jan 21 Earnings/sales releases
Q4 20: sharper COVID-19 impact though the dy...

21 Jan 21 M&A /Corp. Action
Capital exchange with Aquiline Drones

15 Oct 20 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 20: strong rebound in Q3, further improvem...

12 Oct 20 Initiation cov.
The verge of a new era for Drones

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