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Drone Volt

CR
Bloomberg   ALDRV FP
Aerosp. & Defence Equipt.  /  France  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Banking on services and European roots
Target
Upside 16.8%
Price (€) 1.36
Market Cap (€M) 57.0
Benchmarks Current multiplesWeightValues (€)Upside 
DCF (Edit and simulate)  35%2.0953%
NAV/SOTP per share   20%1.7629%
EV/Ebitda Peers 18.0 x 20%1.6622%
P/E Peers 91.1 x 10%0.68-50%
Dividend Yield Peers 0.0% 10%0.00-100%
P/Book Peers 2.8 x 5%2.1356%
Target Price  100%1.5917% 
Valuation matters

DCF
To date, very few drone companies have managed to sustain the supposed growth rate of the market (+10%). We therefore apply a more conservative growth rate in our DCF going forward, namely 8% growth over 2028-35. The wider commercialisation of the LineDrone could push this estimate upwards. Thanks to cost containment measures, positive volume effects and a transition to services rather than products, we believe that long-term EBITDA growth of 8% is achievable.

NAV
For the NAV, in order to reflect the nominally strong growth potential and to compensate for the still early stage of the company, with high volatility in profitability, we have chosen to base our valuation on sales multiples. We value the company through its different segments, based on three-year average forecast sales, to which we apply a multiple. We value Distribution at 1x its estimated three-year average sales. This multiple is in line with similar distribution activities of European companies, taking into account the limited value-added and growth prospects. For Drone Volt Factory, we value the factory (corresponding to drone and camera sales, as well as services) and training based on the current trading multiples compiled on Bloomberg for the competitors, i.e. c.3x revenues. In addition, we value the emerging activity of Drone as a Service separately at 3x given the high growth and margins.

Peers
With regard to peers, finding a similar company to Drone Volt is quite a pitfall since there is currently no perfect match in our coverage, nor on the listed market. We, however, address this issue by valuing Drone Volt in line with the relevant players of the drone industry, such as Elbit Systems, Irobot and Aerovironment.

The target price has suffered from the different capital increases carried to support the high growth rates of the company as well as lower margins in its big distribution contracts.

Comparison Based Valuation
Computed on 18 month forecastsMcap (€M]P/E (x)Ev/Ebitda (x)P/Book (x)Yield(%)
Peers ratios 32.2 22.2 4.42 0.67
Drone Volt's ratios 91.1 18.0 2.83 0.00
Premium 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Default comparison based valuation (€) 0.68 1.66 2.13 0.00
IsraelElbit Systems(Consensus) 16,951 32.222.24.420.67
United StatesAerovironment(Consensus) 5,661 62.526.7n/a0.00
DCF Valuation Per Share Help View DCF history
WACC % 8.96
PV of cashflow FY1-FY11 €th 44,597
FY11CF €th 10,845
Normalised long-term growth"g" % 2.00
Sustainability "g" % 1.90
Terminal value €th 153,631
PV terminal value €th 65,140
PV terminal value in % of total... % 59.4
Total PV €th 109,736
Avg net debt (cash) at book v... €th -7,288
Provisions €th 940
Unrecognised actuarial losses... €th 0.00
Financial assets at market price €th 0.00
Minorities interests (fair value) €th 3,683
Equity value €th 112,401
Number of shares Th 53,854
Implied equity value per share 2.09
Sustainability impact on DCF % -0.83
Assessing The Cost Of Capital Help
Synthetic default risk free rate % 3.50
Target equity risk premium % 5.00
Tax advantage of debt financ... % 25.0
Average debt maturity Year 5
Sector asset beta x 1.09
Debt beta x 1.00
Market capitalisation €th 73,349
Net debt (cash) at book value €th -6,072
Net debt (cash) at market value €th -6,072
Company debt spread bp 500
Marginal Company cost of debt % 8.50
Company beta (leveraged) x 1.02
Company gearing at market v... % -8.28
Company market gearing % -9.03
Required return on geared eq... % 8.62
Cost of debt % 6.38
Cost of ungeared equity % 8.96
WACC % 8.96
DCF Calculation Help
  12/24A 12/25E 12/26E 12/27E Growth 12/28E
Sales €th   32,662 11,784 20,400 25,934 8.00% 28,008   
EBITDA €th   -3,149 395 6,673 10,650 8.00% 11,502   
EBITDA Margin %   -9.64 3.35 32.7 41.1 41.1   
Change in WCR €th   4,971 1,175 292 473 8.00% 511   
Total operating cash flows (pre tax) €th   3,067 1,570 6,965 11,123 12,013   
Corporate tax €th   -2,184 -666 -808 -1,746 8.00% -1,885   
Net tax shield €th   -897 -137 -117 -114 8.00% -123   
Capital expenditure €th   -4,210 -3,621 -3,259 -3,519 8.00% -3,801   
Capex/Sales %   -12.9 -30.7 -16.0 -13.6 -13.6   
Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes) €th   -4,224 -2,854 2,781 5,744 6,204   
Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF... €th     
Free cash flow adjusted €th   -4,224 -2,854 2,781 5,744 6,204   
Discounted free cash flows €th   -4,224 -2,854 2,552 4,839 4,796   
Invested capital   11.8 11.3 11.7 12.0 13.0   
NAV/SOTP Calculation
 % ownedValuation technique Multiple used Valuation at 100%
(€th)
Stake
valuation
(€th)
In currency per share
(€)
% of gross assets
Drone Volt Factory 100% EV/Sales 5 50,140 50,140 0.93 56.4%
Drone as a Service 100% EV/Sales 5 24,240 24,240 0.45 27.3%
Distribution 100% EV/Sales 0.9 11,020 11,020 0.20 12.4%
Roth Mions 3.69% AlphaValue valuation 1,630 60.1 0.00 0.07%
Other 3,425 0.06 3.85%
Total gross assets 88,885 1.65 100%
Net cash/(debt) by year end 6,072 0.11 6.83%
Commitments to pay
Commitments received
NAV/SOTP 94,958 1.76 107%
Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Th) 53,854
NAV/SOTP per share (€) 1.76
Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%) 22.8 View history

Changes to Story : 09/07/2025, Changes to Forecasts : 09/07/2025.