AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and does therefore not constitute an inducement caught by the prohibition under MiFID II

Drone Volt

CR
Bloomberg   ALDRV FP
Aerosp. & Defence Equipt.  /  France  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
From distributor to service provider.
Target
Upside 173%
Price (€) 0.01
Market Cap (€M) 12.1
Perf. 1W: -4.17%
Perf. 1M: -2.82%
Perf. 3M: -11.5%
Perf Ytd: -31.0%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -5.29%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -5.37%
Opinion change05/04/2023 09:06

Change in OpinionAdd vs Buy

Change in EPS2022 : € -0.05 vs -0.01ns
2023 : € 0.00 vs -0.01ns

The downgrade to our EPS FY22 reflects the kitchen sinking of the business associated with Aquiline amortization of all receivables, as well as 2/3rd of the Aquiline Drone shares (€1.7m), which led to a net result of -€26m far below our estimates (-€3.4m). Forward looking, our eps forecasts reflect breakeven at the Ebit level from 2024.



Change in NAV€ 0.07 vs 0.12-39.9%

The drop in the NAV valuation comes mainly from writing down the value of the 10% stake in Aquiline to zero from €8.5m. We also assume that the 50% in Aerialtronics is likely to be worth 50% less than the valuation booked when 50% was sold to Aquiline. The distribution segment valuation has been raised to €21m.



Change in DCF€ 0.03 vs 0.03-22.3%

The FCF has taken a hit as the FY 2022 confirmed that the Aquiline contract had in effect been cancelled to be (hopefully) replaced by a less ambitious commercial agreement. Still, the unexpected €20m+ order for the distribution segment will be a backstop for 2023. Distribution may become a driver for the coming years, along with the new business of Drone as a Service, which books record margins (80?).



Updates

25 Apr 23 Earnings/sales releases
Drone Volt confirms its annual targets after str...

11 Apr 23 Earnings/sales releases
FY22: Take-off to double turnover

24 Oct 22 Earnings/sales releases
Q3-22: massive momentum in distribution

12 Oct 22 Target Change
H1-22 Model Update

27 Sep 22 Earnings/sales releases
From product manufacturer to service provider

Next12345Next
.