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Drone Volt

CR 		Bloomberg   ALDRV FP
Aerosp. & Defence Equipt.  /  France  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
From product to service.
Target
Upside 57.9%
Price (€) 0.01
Target Price (€) 0.02
Market Cap (€M) 15.0
Perf. 1W: -4.76%
Perf. 1M: 3.09%
Perf. 3M: -16.0%
Perf Ytd: 7.53%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -5.35%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -8.67%
Opinion change05/04/2023
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Change in OpinionAdd vs Buy

Change in EPS2022 : € -0.05 vs -0.01ns
2023 : € 0.00 vs -0.01ns

The downgrade to our EPS FY22 reflects the kitchen sinking of the business associated with Aquiline amortization of all receivables, as well as 2/3rd of the Aquiline Drone shares (€1.7m), which led to a net result of -€26m far below our estimates (-€3.4m). Forward looking, our eps forecasts reflect breakeven at the Ebit level from 2024.
Change in NAV€ 0.07 vs 0.12-39.9%

The drop in the NAV valuation comes mainly from writing down the value of the 10% stake in Aquiline to zero from €8.5m. We also assume that the 50% in Aerialtronics is likely to be worth 50% less than the valuation booked when 50% was sold to Aquiline. The distribution segment valuation has been raised to €21m.
Change in DCF€ 0.03 vs 0.03-22.3%

The FCF has taken a hit as the FY 2022 confirmed that the Aquiline contract had in effect been cancelled to be (hopefully) replaced by a less ambitious commercial agreement. Still, the unexpected €20m+ order for the distribution segment will be a backstop for 2023. Distribution may become a driver for the coming years, along with the new business of Drone as a Service, which books record margins (80?).
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