The peer-based valuations are obviously dominated by Hermès. Odiot is not actively restraining its sales as Hermès proudly does but there is a scarcity when it comes to buying its products. The next two years will tell whether the firm is more volume based which would warrant more mundane peers.
The DCF is driven by the expected fast paced growth in the next 3 years with the longer term growth in the out-years something of a stab in the dark. We have used the ultraluxury market’s long-term growth seen at 12%/y.
Our NAV computations is a brave attempt to go granular using the Odiot provided segment sales. EV/Sales are applied with an inevitable degree of arbitrary
At the margin and depending on how well self-funded Odiot becomes, and thus how big its inventory of precious metal builds up, some investors may see a play on silver prices. For now this is a tall order. Note that, over 10 years, silver and gold have delivered broadly similar returns.
