SFPI Group

Following the somewhat disappointing H1 on the P&L side, we have decreased our EPS for FY19 (c.-20%) and FY20 (c.-10%). Note, however, that cash generation was satisfactory, so that it had a limited impact on our valuation (c.-10%).

We have lowered the reference multiple, which has impacted rather significantly our NAV. Overall, EBIT is forecast to be c.15% below our previous forecast for FY20, which means that the decrease in our reference multiple explains all the decrease in our NAV.

We have decreased our long-term FCF conversion assumption from more than 40% to some 35%, on the back of a lower EBITDA than previously expected and stable capex. As the terminal value accounts for about 60% of the overall DCF, this had a significant impact on our DCF.