AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Bloomberg   CRI FP
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From an industrialist to a luxury player
Upside 36.3%
Price (€) 10.36
Market Cap (€M) 258
Perf. 1W: 1.77%
Perf. 1M: -12.9%
Perf. 3M: -7.83%
Perf Ytd: -11.3%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 8.45%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -13.2%
EPS change20/04/2021 14:17

Change in EPS2021 : € 0.68 vs 0.78-13.1%
2022 : € 1.07 vs 1.04+2.91%

We have revised our earnings expectations after incorporating the FY20 figures and rolling forward our estimates through to 2023. The FY21 EPS forecast sees a slight decline due to a more gradual recovery at CFT-PCC, with the fast-fashion market still in a weakened state due to the sanitary and economic crisis. Based on this, the FY21 margin stands at 5.5% versus 6.2% previously. Meanwhile, Protective Films should bounce back to 2019 margin levels by H1 22, and reach 10.0% by 2023, driven by strong pricing and improved mix towards higher-end products.

For Healthcare Solutions, we expect revenues to decline to a normalised level of c.€85m in FY21-22 as the demand for PPE tapers off with no 'shortage scenarios' in sight as the pandemic is brought under control by the current vaccination efforts. With the available offer, pricing should also normalise which leads to a lower recurring operating income margin of 12.7% compared to 20.9% in FY20. CHS is still a remarkable asset that has helped the group leapfrog its diversification ambitions; organic expansion and potential acquisitions in the "Wellness" space should help the division reach €113m in revenues by 2023, with a strong 13.9% recurring operating margin.

Change in NAV€ 34.4 vs 31.9+7.90%

The valuation of Chargeurs' business lines have been updated based on the revised forward-looking EBIT and EBITDA figures, aligned with the profitability targets presented in the new "Leap Forward 2025" strategic plan.

This is mainly led by Protective Films (accounting for 51% of gross assets), with a 7.7% value increase to €481m, based on higher forward looking EBITDA. The decrease in the group's net debt position used for the computation of our NAV/SOTP also contributed to the valuation upgrade, falling from €166m to €126.7m at the close of December 2020.