AlphaValue Corporate Services
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From an industrialist to a luxury player
Upside 33.1%
Price (€) 10.52
Market Cap (€M) 262
Perf. 1W: -11.6%
Perf. 1M: -20.7%
Perf. 3M: -12.0%
Perf Ytd: -9.93%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -18.2%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -18.2%
Target Change15/11/2022

Downwards revision following the Q3 release

Change in Target Price€ 27.0 vs 30.6-12.0%

Change in EPS2022 : € 0.86 vs 1.05-17.7%
2023 : € 1.24 vs 1.35-8.43%

We have incorporated the 9m 22 numbers into our estimates. In line with the strong increase in revenues observed over 9 months (+64%) for CMS and the management's outlook of €120m in 2023 for the division, we have revised our revenue estimates upwards to €83m from €78m for 2022 and to €121m from €91m for 2023. Our margin estimates are now €4.2m and €9.6m for 2022 and 2023 respectively. We have also revised upwards the figures for CFT, which is not yet experiencing the slowdown we had expected (+49% over 9m), and we now estimate revenues of €224m in 2022, compared to €193m and operational profit of €14.6m (versus €12.5m) in 2022. Concerning CPC, our estimates of €28.4m for 2022 were too ambitious in view of the strong setback owing to the health crisis in Europe, so we now expect turnover of €6.4m and a margin of €1.9m. We have also revised downwards the turnover of CAM which is experiencing a reduction in volumes despite the positive price effect, to €343m with a margin of 7% at €24m. Finally, CFL has also been revised downwards to €95m from €108m. All these changes have led to a decrease in our revenue estimates to €752m in 2022 (compared to €775m previously) and €827m in 2023 (compared to €831m previously) as well as in operating profit to €40m in 2022 (compared to €48m) and €53m in 2023 (compared to €60m), which has weighed on our EPS estimates in 2022 and 2023.

Change in DCF€ 29.6 vs 37.7-21.5%

In line with the downward revision of our EPS for the years 2022 and 2023 (see commentary on EPS), our DCF has seen a downward adjustment from €37.7 to €29.6. This downward revision is explained by the much more challenging environment for the group with lower volumes in the CAM division, the collapse of demand in sanitary ware for CPC despite the division's restructuring effort and CLF which has not yet come to fruition. Nevertheless, we believe that CMS and CFT will be the future growth drivers of the group, and that the group remains in a resilient position despite the macroeconomic headwinds. Our estimates are based on an organic growth scenario and therefore do not take into account any contribution from possible future acquisitions.


10 Nov 22 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 22: a subdued quarter

15 Sep 22 Other news/comments
The up-and-coming luxury player

12 Sep 22 Earnings/sales releases
H1 22: an encouraging start to FY 2022 demon...

13 May 22 Earnings/sales releases
Upbeat start to 2022 propelled by strong growth...

18 Feb 22 Earnings/sales releases
FY21: CPF achieves record year, group’s finan...

11 Nov 21 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 performance confirms our FY view