AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Bloomberg   CRI FP
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From an industrialist to a luxury player
Upside 7.87%
Price (€) 13.12
Market Cap (€M) 326
Perf. 1W: -0.76%
Perf. 1M: 15.9%
Perf. 3M: 10.1%
Perf Ytd: 12.3%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 0.94%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 14.4%
EPS change24/03/2022

Slight adjustments to our FY22-23 outlook

Change in EPS2022 : € 1.32 vs 1.36-3.18%
2023 : € 1.48 vs 1.52-2.36%

We have incorporated the FY21 figures, with the group's net result outperforming our forecast by €0.24 per share. This was mostly explained by a higher operating performance for CPF and CHS, slightly offset by a lower than expected operating result for CFT-PCC.

For FY22-23, the main changes to our forecast stem from a slight cut to our operating margin assumptions, from 7.3% to 7.1% in FY22 and from 7.9% to 7.6% in FY23, led by inflationary pressures (e.g. energy and transport prices), excacerbated by the volatile geopolitical environment provoked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We hold the view that rising raw material prices should not add significant pressure to margins, particularly for CPF, as the company has implemented pass-through clauses for its clients, and for CFT, which should offset the higher raw material cost by a positive volume effect in FY22.

Change in NAV€ 38.4 vs 38.0+0.91%

We have adjusted the value of the different divisions based on our updated FY22 EBIT and EBITDA forecasts, while maintaining the valuation multiples mostly in line with our previous assumptions. The slight increase in our SOTP-derived target price stems from the lower net debt position expected at end-FY22 versus our previous scenario.

Change in DCF€ 37.8 vs 38.9-2.76%

Our DCF-based valuation sees a marginal cut after incorporating the adjustments to our FY22-23 EPS forecasts. We have also rolled forward our estimates to 2024; we expect revenues to reach €926m and an underlying operating result of €83m. This base case scenario is based mainly on organic growth, hence it does not factor in the contribution from any potential future acquisitions, which Chargeurs estimates could add an extra €0.5bn to the top line and €50m to the ROPA by 2025, in line with the targets set in the Leap Forward strategic plan.


10 Nov 22 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 22: a subdued quarter

15 Sep 22 Other news/comments
The up-and-coming luxury player

12 Sep 22 Earnings/sales releases
H1 22: an encouraging start to FY 2022 demon...

13 May 22 Earnings/sales releases
Upbeat start to 2022 propelled by strong growth...

18 Feb 22 Earnings/sales releases
FY21: CPF achieves record year, group’s finan...

11 Nov 21 Earnings/sales releases
Q3 performance confirms our FY view