The valuation of ROTH2 as presented below is on the basis of 100% of the share capital, with the exercise of the outstanding warrants (BSA).
Ultimately, the equity value amounts to €30.7m following the exercise of the warrants, or €2.28 per share.
We have used three valuation approaches: DCF, net asset value and comparables. These three approaches have been weighted at 40%, 40% and 20%, respectively.
Discounted cash flows :
Our DCF valuation is, of course, based on the business plan described in the “Profit mechanisms” section. It assumes long-term growth (beyond the projection period) of 15%, with margins improving slightly (reaching c. 33% EBITDA by 2030), which appears realistic given the economies of scale the company should achieve as its new activities grow. Working capital requirements and capital expenditure increase at an annual rate of 10% beyond the projection period, taking into account the significant prior investment.
Our DCF approach results in an equity value for ROTH2 of €25.6m, or €1.90 per share, after the exercise of the outstanding warrants.
Net asset value :
To value ROTH2’s net assets, we have chosen to use revenue multiples by segment (primarily traditional businesses vs growth businesses) in order to capture their different maturity and growth profiles.
We therefore selected a sample of companies from two sectors: industrial product manufacturing (through the “capital goods” sector within AlphaValue’s coverage universe) and a number of companies whose core business is linked to the emergence and development of hydrogen usage. From these two universes, we extracted the average market capitalisation-to-sales multiples for 2025/27, which we applied to ROTH2’s different business segments. These multiples amount to 1.6x for the industrial sector and 3.8x for the “hydrogen companies”, respectively. It should be noted that, given the strong ramp-up of ROTH2’s activities, we have included 2028 revenue in the calculation of this average (+50% vs 2027), corresponding to an initial phase of greater revenue “maturity” for the group.
ITM Power
ITM Power manufactures and markets integrated hydrogen energy solutions. The company provides solutions for grid balancing, energy storage and renewable hydrogen production for transport, renewable heat and chemicals. It offers a range of products based on proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology.
Nel Hydrogen
Nel ASA is a Norwegian company providing solutions for the production, storage and distribution of hydrogen from renewable energy sources. Since 2015, the company has integrated the Danish hydrogen refuelling station designer H2 Logic and, since 2017, Proton OnSite, a US specialist in electrolysis.
Our NAV valuation results in an equity value for ROTH2 of €32.7m, or €2.43 per share, after the exercise of the outstanding warrants.
Comparables :
There are no listed peers comparable to ROTH2, either in its historical activities or in the new sectors into which the company intends to expand, that would allow the valuation of the profits the company is expected to generate. Indeed, the hydrogen sector is still at an early stage, and only revenue multiples are currently meaningful (see Net asset value). Nevertheless, we have compared ROTH2’s current industrial business with a sample of mid-cap companies in the “capital goods” sector. It should be noted that this valuation, based on “current” ratios (P/E, multiples, etc.), is highly unfavourable to ROTH2, as the company’s current earnings remain modest in absolute terms relative to its growth prospects.
