AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

Ecoslops

CR
Bloomberg   ALESA FP
Other Energies  /  France  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
The cleantech making oil residues green
Target Change17/07/2018

Change in Target Price€ 24.3 vs 20.4+19.2%

The upgrade allows for final 2017 figures which confirm that the Sines plant is in FCF mode and thus can be valued less as a project and more as a cash cow. Other units in the pipeline have been similary upgraded.



Change in EPS2018 : € 0.03 vs 0.05-45.8%
2019 : € 0.23 vs -0.52ns

2017 earnings have been more than breaking even which was not a given and provides a sound base for the following years. The upgrades to 2018 and 2019 reflect improving operating conditions as realisation prices for refined products are somewhat more attractive than nine months ago. The rise in inputs (slops) does not offset these realisation gains.



Change in NAV€ 31.9 vs 20.1+58.8%

The NAV computation is now based on the 2020 EBITDA for Sines and time-adjusted similar multiples for other refining units as they are gradually fired up. We have allowed for a cautious valuation for smaller "refinery in a box" Mini P2Rs soon to be tested.



Change in DCF€ 26.1 vs 29.0-9.93%

The DCF has been revised to only allow for projects currently in the pipeline.



Target
Upside 189%
Price (€) 8
Market Cap (€M) 35.3
Perf. 1W: 7.53%
Perf. 1M: 12.0%
Perf. 3M: -33.3%
Perf Ytd: -29.8%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 10.1%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 10.6%
Updates
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