AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Cementir Holding

CR
Bloomberg   CEM IM
Cement & Aggregates  /  Italy  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Also operates in : Holding Companies
White knight with green armour
EPS change27/07/2020

Fine-tuning the model prior to H1 results

Change in EPS2020 : € 0.45 vs 0.56-19.7%
2021 : € 0.56 vs 0.61-8.65%

Our EPS is negatively impacted by the lower activity level and margin assumptions. COVID-19 has had a more widespread impact since we last updated our model, resulting in this sharp degradation of the EPS.

Region-wise for 2020, we expect Denmark will continue to remain resilient but Norway may see a sharp drop in demand due to its oil-dependent economy. Egypt and China should show positive growth, while Belgium/France and Malayasia, which were the most impacted by prolonged lockdowns, should see significant top-line and margin declines this year (for Belgium/France: sales -14% and EBITDA -22% vs our previous estimates). Turkey might be affected by unfavourable FX and, hence, may see a negative EBITDA this year too. Given that the US is still undergoing partial lockdowns, we have taken a conservative stance on this region (sales -8% and EBITDA -15% vs our previous estimates). Lastly, we have reduced EBITDA for Italy, which mainly accounts for the corporate level activities, to €-3.7m, because of the one-off announced during Q1 and possible restructuring expenses.

For now, we have left the top-line growth and EBITDA margin improvement unchanged for 2021, but the lowered 2020 base has impacted the 2021 figures in absolute terms.



Change in DCF€ 10.1 vs 11.1-9.22%

A further decline in the top line and a reduction in the EBITDA margin have resulted in a decline of €1.03 in the DCF.



Target
Upside 45.0%
Price (€) 6.03
Market Cap (€M) 959
Perf. 1W: 0.50%
Perf. 1M: -3.67%
Perf. 3M: -3.67%
Perf Ytd: -8.00%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -0.06%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -1.69%
Updates

29 Jul 20 Earnings/sales releases
H1 20: in for a Danish treat

14 May 20 Earnings/sales releases
Q1 20: lower result but good shareholder remu...

06 Mar 20 Earnings/sales releases
FY19: profits higher than our conservative proje...

18 Feb 20 Earnings/sales releases
FY19: stability despite the Turkish burden

20 Dec 19 Latest
When cement goes green too

15 Nov 19 Earnings/sales releases
Priority to organic growth

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