AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

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Bloomberg   KEYW BB
Smart Cards-Security  /  Belgium  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
The soft bet is paying off
EPS change15/06/2017

Update following the Q1 17 results

Change in EPS2017 : € 0.24 vs 0.26-5.57%
2018 : € 0.25 vs 0.28-9.27%

Following the Q1 17 results, we have updated our forecasts for the coming years. Our top-line estimate for 2017 is downgraded from €20.7m to €20.2m, mainly due to a cut in the Terminals business (-7.2% yoy vs. -3% previously) in the light of a difficult Q1. In addition, we now see growth of 9.7% in 2018 vs. 12.2% previously, in order to reflect a progressive recovery in the Terminals business.

Despite improvements in both segments, the bottom-line mechanically suffers from the higher share of Authorisations in the mix, for which the gross margin is much lower than Terminals.



Change in DCF€ 2.48 vs 2.78-10.9%

The DCF is negatively impacted by the top-line downgrade, which translates into a lower cash generation, despite unchanged long-term parameters.



Target
Upside 89.9%
Price (€) 1.12
Market Cap (€M) 26.4
Perf. 1W: -0.88%
Perf. 1M: 3.70%
Perf. 3M: 5.66%
Perf Ytd: 2.75%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -0.18%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 6.35%
Updates

05 Sep 17 Earnings/sales releases
Mixed quarter, negatively impacted by a disapp...

15 Jun 17 EPS change
Update following the Q1 17 results

15 Jun 17 Earnings/sales releases
Strong authorisations offset weaker terminals

17 Mar 17 Earnings/sales releases
Top-line above expectations, litigation as the m...

24 Nov 16 Earnings/sales releases
Authorisations somewhat offset terminals, bette...

06 Sep 16 Earnings/sales releases
Solid H1 despite a relative weakness in Termin...

15 Jun 16 Initiation cov.
Initiation of coverage.

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