AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

Keyware

CR
Bloomberg   KEYW BB
Smart Cards-Security  /  Belgium  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
From hardware provider to fintech specialist
EPS change04/07/2019

The soft pushed up revenue, while the transition continues to impact profitability

Change in EPS2019 : € 0.10 vs 0.16-36.4%
2020 : € 0.11 vs 0.17-34.2%

Following the integration of the group’s annual results, the FY18 EPS has been slightly pushed down. The transition from a hardware provider to a software developer continues to weigh negatively on profitability. Our previous EPS forecasts (€0.16 for FY19, and €0.17 for FY20) were disconnected from the previous full-year results. Therefore, we have lowered our estimates to reflect the current issues better, which we believe will end in the medium term.



Change in Target Price€ 2.06 vs 2.08-1.12%

Amadeus IT Group and EdenRed were added to our peers’ valuation to reflect Keyware’s offers better.



Change in DCF€ 2.28 vs 2.34-2.68%

While we have slightly downgraded the EBITDA forecasts for the next three years, our DCF valuation is unchanged. The transition phase should continue to impact negatively, but we are confident that it is a medium-term issue. Consequently, and to reflect the market growth potential, we have decided to increase our long-term growth for both sales and EBITDA by +1.5%.



Target
Upside 101%
Price (€) 1.00
Market Cap (€M) 22.4
Perf. 1W: 2.05%
Perf. 1M: -7.01%
Perf. 3M: 48.5%
Perf Ytd: 19.9%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -1.41%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -8.67%
Updates

16 Sep 20 Earnings/sales releases
A pivotal year for the Authorisations division

26 May 20 Earnings/sales releases
The right time to establish itself as a software pr...

18 Mar 20 Earnings/sales releases
Positioned to take advantage of increasing pow...

13 Nov 19 Earnings/sales releases
The challenge remains intact

30 Aug 19 Earnings/sales releases
Software continues to drive up the top-line

15 Mar 19 Earnings/sales releases
Still in transition

09 Nov 18 Earnings/sales releases
Still in transition, the group showed revenue gro...

16 Oct 18 Earnings/sales releases
Strong revenue growth, but profitability still imp...

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