AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

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Bloomberg   KEYW BB
Smart Cards-Security  /  Belgium  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
The soft bet is paying off
Target Change08/09/2017

Estimate downgrades following the disappointing Q2 17 earnings release

Change in Target Price€ 2.08 vs 2.48-16.0%

Change in EPS2017 : € 0.19 vs 0.24-19.8%
2018 : € 0.20 vs 0.25-22.7%

Following the Q2 earnings release, which saw a disappointing performance in the Terminals business, we have downgraded our expectations for the coming years.

Revenues for 2017 are now expected to be €19.4m (vs. €20.2m previously), while 2018 is now expected to reach €21.3m (vs. €22.1m).

Despite a higher gross margin, the bottom-line also suffered from a higher opex run rate, which resulted in a substantial cut in our EPS.



Change in DCF€ 1.85 vs 2.47-25.1%

Our DCF inputs have been left unchanged, but the cash generation mechanically suffered from our estimate downgrades, resulting in a decrease in our DCF-based valuation. The impact of the cut has been amplified by the fact that it originates from a weak performance in the Terminals business, which is a major contributor to cash flows compared to the Authorisations business.



Target
Upside 88.8%
Price (€) 1.14
Market Cap (€M) 26.8
Perf. 1W: 9.62%
Perf. 1M: -0.87%
Perf. 3M: 14.0%
Perf Ytd: 37.3%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 2.94%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 3.30%
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