AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

Swissquote Group Holding

CR
Bloomberg   SQN SW
Internet banking/Fintech  /  Switzerland  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Licensed to conquer Europe
Target
Upside 109%
Price (CHF) 99.85
Market Cap (CHFM) 1,531
Benchmarks Current multiplesWeightValues (CHF)Upside 
DCF (Edit and simulate)  35%262163%
NAV/SOTP per share   20%19494%
EV/Ebitda Peers 4.4 x 20%200100%
P/E Peers 7.6 x 10%200100%
Dividend Yield Peers 2.6% 10%1066%
P/Book Peers 1.6 x 5%15555%
Target Price  100%209109% 
Valuation matters

Peers

Concerning its peers, we consider Viel & CIE (Tradition’s main shareholder) as Swissquote’s closest peer (in our coverage). Euronext, Deutsche Boerse and the LSEG are also reasonable proxies of the Swiss Fintech as they are more and more tech-focused and remain dependent on trading volumes. Asset managers Amundi and DWS are dependent as well on the financial markets. As Swissquote is in theory a bank, we find it right to compare it to Swiss banks UBS and Julius Baer which are also mainly dependent on fees (wealth management).

We apply a 50% discount on the yield-based valuation as, contrary to all its peers apart from the market venues, Swissquote prefers investing rather than paying out dividends (in line with its DNA as a fintech company).

DCF

The DCF is based on a computed 10-year revenue and EBITDA growth of 3% to factor in the higher growth of fintech banks compared to traditional ones.

Comparison Based Valuation
Computed on 18 month forecastsMcap (€M]P/E (x)Ev/Ebitda (x)P/Book (x)Yield(%)
Peers ratios 16.5 10.5 1.66 3.20
Swissquote Group Holding's ratios 7.59 4.37 1.60 2.56
Premium 0.00% 0.00% 50.0% 25.0%
Default comparison based valuation (CHF) 200 200 155 106
London Stock Exchange Group 49,029 26.113.41.691.71
Deutsche Boerse 28,868 20.514.33.472.38
Amundi 10,508 9.325.921.017.53
Julius Baer 9,575 10.07.791.375.74
Euronext NV 8,303 15.210.21.743.28
DWS 5,212 6.292.450.678.25
DCF Valuation Per Share Help View DCF history
WACC % 8.32
PV of cashflow FY1-FY11 CHFM 1,474
FY11CF CHFM 283
Normalised long-term growth"g" % 2.00
Sustainability "g" % 2.20
Terminal value CHFM 4,619
PV terminal value CHFM 2,077
PV terminal value in % of total... % 58.5
Total PV CHFM 3,551
Avg net debt (cash) at book v... CHFM -375
Provisions CHFM 32.3
Unrecognised actuarial losses... CHFM 0.00
Financial assets at market price CHFM 11.2
Minorities interests (fair value) CHFM 0.00
Equity value CHFM 3,905
Number of shares Mio 14.9
Implied equity value per share CHF 262
Sustainability impact on DCF % 1.71
Assessing The Cost Of Capital Help
Synthetic default risk free rate % 3.50
Target equity risk premium % 5.00
Tax advantage of debt financ... % 30.0
Average debt maturity Year 5
Sector asset beta x 0.96
Debt beta x 0.02
Market capitalisation CHFM 1,486
Net debt (cash) at book value CHFM -322
Net debt (cash) at market value CHFM -322
Company debt spread bp 10.0
Marginal Company cost of debt % 3.60
Company beta (leveraged) x 0.82
Company gearing at market v... % -21.7
Company market gearing % -27.7
Required return on geared eq... % 7.59
Cost of debt % 2.52
Cost of ungeared equity % 8.32
WACC % 8.32
DCF Calculation Help
  12/21A 12/22E 12/23E 12/24E Growth 12/25E
Sales CHFM   472 463 512 570 3.00% 587   
EBITDA CHFM   255 244 275 313 3.00% 322   
EBITDA Margin %   53.9 52.7 53.8 54.9 54.9   
Change in WCR CHFM   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00% 0.00   
Total operating cash flows (pre tax) CHFM   313 219 227 264 322   
Corporate tax CHFM   -30.2 -28.8 -32.5 -37.1 3.00% -38.2   
Net tax shield CHFM   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00% 0.00   
Capital expenditure CHFM   -28.0 -46.3 -51.2 -57.0 3.00% -58.7   
Capex/Sales %   -5.93 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0   
Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes) CHFM   254 144 143 169 225   
Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF... CHFM     
Free cash flow adjusted CHFM   254 144 143 169 225   
Discounted free cash flows CHFM   254 144 132 144 177   
Invested capital CHF   282 300 319 341 352   
NAV/SOTP Calculation
 % ownedValuation technique Multiple used Valuation at 100%
(CHFM)
Stake
valuation
(CHFM)
In currency per share
(CHF)
% of gross assets
Swissquote 100% PE 10.5 2,881 2,881 194 100%
Other
Total gross assets 2,881 194 100%
Net cash/(debt) by year end
Commitments to pay
Commitments received
NAV/SOTP 2,881 194 100%
Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Mio) 14.9
NAV/SOTP per share (CHF) 194
Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%) 48.4 View history

Changes to Story : 20/06/2022, Changes to Forecasts : 20/06/2022.