The 2023 EPS came slightly below our previous estimates (-4%) due to lower revenue (-3%) on the back of weaker fee income and lower eforex income than anticipated, offset in part by lower opex (-2%).
Building on anticipated increased activity and market volatility, we have upgraded our 2024 EPS estimates as we now expect net revenue to be 4% higher than previously anticipated on the back of considerably higher estimated crypto assets income (CHF70m vs CHF26m) on the back of a continued acceleration in crypto rally with a $125k end-of-year bitcoin target price as a benchmark. This will be offset in part by lower fee income reflecting increased fee expenses, slightly lower transactions per account, slightly lower than expected trading client assets and lower fee margins compared to our initial projections and a lower eforex income, as a result of lower accounts and volume per account than previously estimated. Combined with an upward opex revision, reflecting the stronger wage increases observed in 2023 compared to our expectation, we now expect the pretax result to be 7% higher than our initial projections, at CHF352m (51.7% pretax profit margin).
As our market scenario implies declining activity and volatility in 2025, we have revised our revenue projections downward (-6%) due to a combination of lower net interest income (linked to lower rates), lower fee income and lower eforex income, all partly offset by lower opex, resulting in a 5% downward revision of the pretax result to CHF335m (51.4% pretax profit margin).