AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Swissquote Group Holding

CR
Bloomberg   SQN SW
Internet banking/Fintech  /  Switzerland  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Exporting high quality financial technology
Target
Upside 93.5%
Price (CHF) 118.8
Market Cap (CHFM) 1,821
Perf. 1W: -6.16%
Perf. 1M: -29.1%
Perf. 3M: -26.7%
Perf Ytd: -39.7%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -21.5%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -23.4%
Earnings/sales releases14/01/2021

The party is going on...

Swissquote released this morning new targets for the FY2020 results (expected to be disclosed on 18 March 2021):
- the company is expecting at least CHF315m (vs CHF300m previously and CHF312m for our expectations)
- profit before tax above CHF105m (vs CHF100m previously and CHF105m for our expectations).
- Clients assets rose to an all-time high of CHF39.8bn
As importantly, these numbers should be sustainable going into 2021 (“Swissquote thus achieves the best results in its history and aims to continue growing its revenues and profit in 2021”).


Analysis

These better numbers were partly expected as Swissquote’s share price’s stellar performance continued on a one-year basis. The share is also still up 2% today.
While we were cautiously optimistic, as the sharp increase in the opening of new accounts had to be maintained, management looks confident this should be the case going into 2021 and later.
It expects to continue increasing its revenues and profits in 2021. We also expect a new guidance for 2022 as the previous one was reached two years ahead of schedule. In 2019, management indeed expected, for 2022, a CHF100m pre-tax profit with CHF36bn of clients’ assets. Simply extrapolating this ratio with a stable level of clients’ assets in 2022, Swissquote’s pre-tax profit would stand at CHF111m in 2022.

And that does not take into account Swissquote’s recent or future growth initiatives. Internaax should indeed prove to grow going into 2021 and later.
We need more details regarding the partnership between Swissquote and Postfinance (a 50% JV between the two companies) to launch an app with the ambition to compete with Revolut or N26. But leveraging Postfinance’s three million customers could only prove to be profitable.

The recent volality of cryptocurrencies in recent weeks will add to Swissquote’s Q12021 revenues (as was the case in H1 18). The institutionalisation of the trading of cryptocurrencies should also add to Swissquote’s revenues in a sustainable way.


Impact

We will raise our estimates going into 2021 and 2022.


Updates

14 Jan 21 Earnings/sales releases
The party is going on...

11 Aug 20 Earnings/sales releases
Another strong set of results

17 Jun 20 Other news/comments
More good news again...

27 Apr 20 Opinion change
More tailwinds

24 Apr 20 Latest
More tailwinds

17 Mar 20 Earnings/sales releases
A very reassuring guidance

17 Jan 20 Opinion change
An enabling environment

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