AlphaValue Corporate Services Fundamental Analysis FR
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AlphaValue Corporate Services
This research has been commissioned and paid for by the company and is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined in MiFID II

Swissquote Group Holding

CR
Bloomberg   SQN SW
Internet banking/Fintech  /  Switzerland  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Exporting high quality financial technology
Opinion change23/03/2021

All on the 2024 guidance

Change in OpinionAdd vs Reduce

Change in EPS2021 : CHF 7.46 vs 6.55+13.8%
2022 : CHF 8.56 vs 6.73+27.1%

Following FY2020 and the communication of a new guidance for both 2021 and 2024, we have (sharply) adjusted our EPS. 2020 was supposed to be an exceptionnal year for Swissquote but from our discussions with management, it appears that 2020 is actually a game-changer for Swissquote. Hence, the very bullish guidance communicated by management for the coming years. Management indeed expects a 15% growth in revenues and a 23% increase in pre-tax profit for 2021. It expects CHF500m revenues and CHF200m pre-tax profit for 2024. The development of Swissquote at the international level and the trading of crypto-currencies are among the reasons for this guidance. At the same time, new accounts opening ytd remains buoyant vs 2020. Management therefore expects about CHF5bn/year new net money until 2024 (vs CHF3bn previously). We wrote a Latest on Monday, 22 March, detailing the guidance.



Change in NAVCHF 134 vs 86.4+55.2%

Our NAV is based on a three-year average pre-tax profit. As we have (sharply) increased our expectations for the coming years, it therefore positively impacts the NAV as well.



Change in DCFCHF 166 vs 117+42.0%

As we have (sharply) increased our pre-tax profit for 2021, 2022 and 2023, the DCF is mechanically increased as well (we have not changed other hypotheses in terms of long-term growth).



Target
Upside 11.1%
Price (CHF) 185.2
Market Cap (CHFM) 2,839
Perf. 1W: -9.22%
Perf. 1M: -0.75%
Perf. 3M: 13.2%
Perf Ytd: 118%
10 day relative perf. to stoxx600: -3.43%
20 day relative perf. to stoxx600: 2.30%
Updates

06 Aug 21 Earnings/sales releases
Good numbers, increase in guidance, modest ...

17 Jun 21 Opinion change
Impressive again

16 Jun 21 Latest
Incredible numbers...

23 Mar 21 Opinion change
All on the 2024 guidance

22 Mar 21 Earnings/sales releases
Bullish (but reachable) targets

14 Jan 21 Earnings/sales releases
The party is going on...

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