Reducing the cost per MWh
To deploy fully, a floating wind turbine will have to reduce its cost per MWh to below €100, a target deemed by many as possible by 2025-30. Equinor, owner of the Hywind farm, has already stated its objectives of achieving a €40-60/MWh cost of energy by 2030. Cost savings will stem from the increase in turbine capacity as higher capacity allows for fewer installations, lower maintenance and operation costs. In ten years, the size of turbines has already more than doubled from 3.5MW to 9MW, while 12MW turbines are just around the corner (GE’s Haliade-X). First onshore tests will start in 2019 while first offshore operations will begin by 2021. We expect the floating wind industry to be the first to adopt these higher turbine capacities.
Another big driver will be wind speeds and steadiness. The further from the shore, the stronger and more stable the winds generally are, giving floating wind farms a bid advantage. Moreover, the relation between wind speed and energy output is cubed, meaning that a 26% increase in wind speeds will double the total output, thus decreasing the costs per MWh by the same amount.
Besides these basic principles, floating wind turbines allow for lower installation and maintenance costs as turbines can be constructed and checked on the quayside and then pulled into position easily and affordably.
While many of these cost drivers are outside Dolfines’s control, its unique and scalable design will allow it to take advantage of the use of higher turbine capacity. According to Dolfines’ estimates, doubling the turbine capacity from 6MW to 12MW will only result in a 35-40% increase in costs. It is likely that other designs like solid steel-reinforced concrete structures will not benefit as much from this race for higher turbine capacity.
Sedlar Rig 160
As part of its efforts to refocus on value-added activities and being an asset-light company, Dolfines has been trying to sell a hydraulic rig it designed and built in 2007. The unit was written down to zero in 2019. Although, we do not take it into account in our estimate, there is value remaining in it and a sale could bring extra cash flow to the company.
